The NIFTY MIDCAP 100 index has exhibited remarkable strength over the past five months, significantly surpassing the performance of the NIFTY frontline index. Nevertheless, an examination of the current technical landscape suggests a potential reversal of this trend.
There is a compelling likelihood that as the broader MidCap and SmallCap markets undergo correction or consolidation, the NIFTY50 and Banknifty, representing LargeCap stocks, could begin to outshine the broader market.
Illustrated in the chart above, the NIFTY MIDCAP 100 Index’s recent formation of a large bearish engulfing candle at yesterday’s close is notable. This candle pattern is not only valid but also quite potent, possibly indicating the emergence of a potential top with this index. Such technical formations gain significance when they occur following a substantial upward movement, and indeed, from the end of March this year until now, the MidCap 100 index has surged by an impressive 42%.
Further reinforcing this perspective is the weekly chart depicting both the NIFTY and NIFTY MIDCAP 100 Index. Both indices experienced a breakout around the end of May and the first week of June, but their subsequent performance diverged significantly. NIFTY gained a modest 5.74%, while the NIFTY MIDCAP 100 Index posted an impressive 25% rally, highlighting its strong relative outperformance.
In light of the recent appearance of a substantial bearish engulfing candle, signaling a heightened likelihood of a potential top, it appears prudent to consider protecting profits within the broader markets and perhaps reducing exposure. It is important to note that the broader market is likely to become increasingly stock-specific, and there is a possibility that large-cap stocks may exhibit better relative performance compared to mid and small-caps in the immediate short term.
In conclusion, while this analysis offers an opinion on the market dynamics, it is essential for investors to conduct their own research and make informed decisions in line with their investment objectives and risk tolerance.
Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
SEBI Regd. No. INH000003341